Why Scams Work: The Psychology Behind Urgency, Fear, and Trust - Part 5: Scarcity
How criminals use normal human decision-making to influence our choices—and what we can do about it.
A 7-part series about why urgency, fear, authority, trust, scarcity, and emotional connection can derail good decision-making—and why understanding the psychology of scams matters.
Part 5 - Scarcity: “This opportunity won't last.”
Fear focuses our attention on what we could lose.
Scarcity can do something slightly different: it makes something appear limited.
Only a short time remains.
Only a few opportunities are available.
Act before the offer disappears.
Respond before access is removed.
Scarcity is a well-established persuasion principle, and researchers have repeatedly found it in phishing communications. An analysis of 887 phishing emails found that the use of scarcity-related persuasion increased over the period researchers examined. Sage Journals
A 2026 study analyzing 200 phishing emails across a ten-year period likewise found that phishing messages continue to employ combinations of persuasion strategies rather than relying solely on technical deception. ScienceDirect
There is an interesting wrinkle here: scarcity doesn't fool everyone every time. In the 2025 Auton and Sturman experiment, participants were actually relatively good at identifying phishing messages containing scarcity cues. ScienceDirect
I think that nuance is important. Psychological influence isn't a magic formula.
Using a persuasion technique can attract one person's attention while raising another person's suspicion. Context, experience, knowledge, emotion, and the way techniques are combined all matter.
That's another reason we should be cautious about describing a particular group of people as simply “vulnerable.”
In this 7-part series, I examine each one of these persuasion principles in the context of cybersecurity awareness. Tomorrow, I will take a look at emotional connection.
Selected scholarly research
Auton, J. C., & Sturman, D. (2025). Persuasion under pressure: the influence of persuasion principles and time constraints on phishing email susceptibility. Information & Computer Security, 33(5), 845–859. https://doi.org/10.1108/ICS-07-2024-0163
Khadka, K., Ullah, A. B., & Marroquin, E. M. (2026). Unmasking persuasion in phishing: a content analysis of principles of persuasion in emails and subject lines. Information and Computer Security, 34(1), 104-121. https://doi.org/10.1108/ICS-12-2024-0321
Zielinska, O. A., Welk, A. K., Mayhorn, C. B., & Murphy-Hill, E. (2016). A temporal analysis of persuasion principles in phishing emails. Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, 60(1), 765–769. https://doi.org/10.1177/1541931213601175
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